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  • Nov 11th, 2005
  • Comments Off on SBP finds flaws in FBS key economic indicators
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has found several flaws in the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) key economic indicators. FBS is the main source of data on national accounts, production of agriculture and industry, foreign trade, prices, poverty incidence and unemployment.

In its annual report 2004-05, the central bank said that despite several attempts to improve the statistical system, it still suffers from a number of gaps, weaknesses, infrequency and lags in compilation and dissemination of information.

About inflation, the bank said that due to methodological problems in compilation of data arriving at core, the inflation figure is difficult.

Besides, prices of some petroleum products are still given in non-food non-oil index. House rent index is also calculated incorrectly, because in actual terms it is the house construction price index and its ingredients, the bank added.

The national account data is also having several weaknesses. For instance, small and medium manufacturing calculated the unchanged growth for the last five years. Large-scale manufacturing is growing rapidly and has spillover effects to the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). The value addition in SME is static and does not capture this buoyancy.

Value addition in construction is inconsistent with the movement of key performance indicators of the sector such as cement dispatches, steel consumption, etc.

According to the bank, the most controversial national statistics was on poverty and unemployment, due to non-compilation of data for several years.

The report said the last available data for poverty and unemployment was for 2001-02, which was about four-year-old when the economy was in depression. While, the data for the periods 2002-05, during which the economy gained momentum, is not yet available.

However, in time publication of data on unemployment and poverty would help the economic mangers in future policy-making for the country.

Besides, showing concern about economic statistics, the central bank has also called for converting of FBS into an autonomous statistical authority.

It said that these weaknesses along with the status of the FBS give rise to some questions about the confidence to be reposed in the data series.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its Pakistan Economic Update-2005 has also observed that Pakistan's national account data is of poor quality and inconsistent.

The ADB said that in the Budget 2005-06, there is 41.9 percent increase in public sector development expenditure, but it is very difficult to explain as to how fixed capital formation in the public sector, according to the national income accounts, decreased by 0.4 percent in nominal terms and by 14.1 percent in real terms.

In addition, although small revision in previous year's national accounts data at the time of releasing the data for the outgoing year are understandable, drastic changes made every year in these data undermine their credibility.

For instance, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2003-04, public sector fixed investment at constant prices increased by 40.8 percent in FY 2004 and the private sector investment increased by 7.9 percent.

While, in the Economic Survey 2004-05 growth in public sector investment in FY 2004 has been revised downward to 21.1 percent and the private investment is shown as having declined by 11 percent, the Asian Bank observed.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2005


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